I know there’s a strong chance that Nadal will take over the number 1 ranking in August (if not this week then soon) but will that make him the clear #1 people are suggesting. Will this clearly be the changing of the guard? I think all of this is premature.
Consider this. As Federer suggested yesterday, winning the Olympics and US Open could take his year from being a good one to being a great one (not by Fed’s standards of the last few years but historically true). Federer is, I think, the odds on favorite to win both those tournaments. The Olympics and Open are both on hardcourts and Federer has won the last 4 Opens. He loves Wimbledon and that’s always been the tournament with which he’s been most associated but his dominance in New York has been almost as complete.
If 2008 ends with Djokovic winning the Australian, Nadal taking the French and Wimbledon while Federer ends the year winning the Olympics and US Open, won’t we think Federer is the favorite at Australia in ’09? Will most tennis fans think some torch has been passed?