lucky enough to work in an environment in which politics gets discussed
frequently, thoughtfully and kindly. One consequence of that environment is
that I’ve been asked to update my Electoral College prediction for next week’s
Presidential Election so here it is: I see the most likely outcome as Obama
332- Romney 206. That margin of victory would decisively outpace the popular
vote difference between the candidates by reflecting many close wins for Obama in
swing states but Romney landslides in deep red states.
think Obama’s EC vote total could range anywhere from 277 to 358. That’s a
lotta swing. I’m on the high end of this projection because I anticipate the
most important late leans are all moving toward the President. Early voting, Hurricane
Sandy, first time voters, Romney's rebuke by the auto industry and the unpolled masses… if there will be voting
benefits from any of those realities, Obama will get them.
reflects my thinking that states like Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
will almost certainly go blue. New Hampshire, Colorado and Iowa are very likely
to do so as well. And states like Florida and Virginia have a decent chance to
stay in the President’s column. Even North Carolina and Indiana have an outside
chances of sliding away from Romney in his worst case scenario.
Politico’s swing state map suggests that the
race will end up 290-248 for Obama. My guesses that both Virginia and Florida go
for Obama lead to my 332 prediction. Three things stand out to me in looking at
This map is only about polling averages. No other factors are used.
Two- Florida and
Virginia are gravy states for the President. A few months ago, everyone assumed
those states would be critical battlegrounds. In fact, Romney announced his
choice of Paul Ryan in Virginia for that very reason.
Three- Perhaps, most
amazing, Politico’s current projection means Obama could lose Ohio and still
win the election!
Had you told Mitt Romney six weeks ago that he would win
Ohio but lose the White House, he would have been heartsick. If my prediction
holds up, at least he won’t have to wonder if he could have done something
differently. There’s always a silver lining.