Author: whodeanny

Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James

 

What most basketball fans seem to be hoping for is that tonight begins a critical new chapter in NBA history: KD vs. LBJ.

 

In 2012, LeBron still has ‘the conn’. He’s the best player, 3x MVP, Olympic Gold Medalist, one of the 20 greatest ever[i]… while Durant has visions of those achievements he’s still clearly in 2nd place right now. That’s as it should be though, both in the sense of a natural progression and in terms of building interest.

 

The best outcome for the development of this rivalry is the one I anticipate happening. LeBron wins. (Yes, of course, that means Miami wins but in the world of NBA marketing, it’s LeBron.) If LeBron wins, he’ll be elevated out of the circle of Greatest Non-Champions[ii]. However, if he loses, he’ll be 0-3 in the Finals. That would be an extraordinary weight to bear.

 

If Durant wins, he’ll be considered among the most precocious champions ever but he still won’t be in the inner circle of that group[iii]. If Durant loses, that’ll be seen as perfectly fine! OKC is so young that reaching the Finals is a tremendous accomplishment in itself and the battle to climb the last peak will be a dominant storyline next season.

 

One juicy subplot that’s not received much attention yet is highly intriguing to me. This summer, Durant and James are both on the US Men’s Olympic team. They’re both incredibly well equipped for the international game and likely to share minutes, leadership and practice time. How different will London be if James’ Heat are champions or if Durant’s Thunder have the rings?

 

KD vs. LBJ. Sounds great to me.

 

 

FDO

 

[i] Please don’t try to find 20 better players. You can’t.

[ii] Guys like Elgin Baylor, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, Dominique Wilkins, Stockton-to-Malone… Very good company.

[iii] Kareem, Bird, Magic… AMAZING company! 

 

2012 NBA Finals Preview

 

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat: The Summer Storm Series

 

I have no idea what’s gonna happen in this series.

 

There, I admitted it. No one else seems to be able to acknowledge how confusing these playoffs have been but I think the shifts in momentum and pressure have been extraordinary and difficult to anticipate.

 

Just consider that 2 weeks ago, many folks in the media were openly wondering if the Spurs could go through the playoffs undefeated[i]. The Thunder were too young and Russell Westbrook too egotistical, Scott Brooks couldn’t make in game coaching moves and the post combo of Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka didn’t score enough. Remember all that talk? Now, Charles Barkley is openly asking Tim Duncan to retire and the Spurs are being written off (again) as championship contenders going forward. The Thunder are being ordained as a likely dynasty and Kevin Durant is being anointed as the true heir to Kobe Bryant as the NBA’s next great winner.[ii]  

 

Last week’s primary dramas centered on the Heat’s failings.  Many pundits questioned which of Miami’s Big Three would be sent packing this summer, along with Coach Erik Spoelstra. Falling behind 3-2 to the Boston Celtics apparently meant that the Heat’s team building model was fatally flawed and the Heat would suffer accordingly. LeBron James’ Game 5 fiasco[iii] continued to reveal him as a “master of panic”[iv]. That all changed when Miami won two incredibly impressive victories and appear to be clicking as at no other time in the playoffs.

 

All this is to say that over the course of the last 4, 5, 6 or 7 games of this NBA season, we’re likely to see an amazing variety of twists and turns. In basketball more than any other major American sport, change happens abruptly. One half, one quarter or even one shot can transform a game. That’s part of the joy of basketball!

 

To my way of thinking, there are more Heat players who can transform a game. In a series with rough equalities across the board, I think that matters quite a bit. Combining that with an edge in experience, desperation and the one player who can do everything on the court, I anticipate a Miami victory. Perhaps the end of the Thunder’s season will mirror last year’s as they lose to the eventual champs on the road. That means I’m gonna ride with Liam’s Mum[v] and predict Miami winning in 5 games.

 

I’m not sure I believe it either.

 

 

FDO

 

 

 

 

[i] I tried to link to the discussion on ESPN’s First Take but the video’s been removed. Should I feel surprised?

[ii] I think Tim Duncan should feel offended by this whole line of reasoning. Duncan has been the best player for 4 championship teams. Kobe’s been the best for 2 titlists.

[iii] His game high 30 points and game high 13 rebounds would be considered extraordinary for anyone else.

[iv] Shaq’s derisive comment about his former coach Stan Van Gundy has been applied to James numerous times.

[v] It’s an ESPN’s Mike and Mike joke. 

 

Justified Use of Force

 

Every year there’s a new one

A Diallo, King or me

Clamoring loudly

Broken faces on TV

We ask so many questions

But no one’s forced to answer

 

With sympathy’s short half-life

Soon most are hoping for the noise to stop

And the questions to disappear once again

Just like us

In our lives

And our deaths

 

 
 © Gayle Force Press 2003

 

 

The Sun King

 

Walking out in the snow

I notice prints that make me wonder

If you’re warm

Or deeply chilled somewhere

In a not too distant place

Waiting like me

For the sky to clear

And sun to reclaim its throne

Reigning over the world

And all in it

Even you

Though you hate that in every moment

Of the day

 

 

 © Gayle Force Press 2002

 

 

Romney’s Troubles Begin in New Hampshire?

 

New Hampshire?!?

 

It’s amusing to watch the coverage of the GOP Presidential nominating process in New Hampshire.  For the last year, Mitt Romney’s camp has attempted to create an aura of inevitability around his candidacy with some success.

 

Even last week, after the photo finish in the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum’s success there was portrayed as a boon to Romney as Santorum could help clear the rest of the field of candidates. To some extent that worked with Michele Bachmann dropping out and Rick Perry’s hours long exit. Overall, though, it appears to me that this race will continue much longer than Romney guessed it would. I anticipate today’s New Hampshire primaries will make Romney’s inevitability strategy look incredibly vulnerable.

 

My guess is that Romney will win with something less than 40% of the vote. That will be a classic case of losing by winning. It won’t be LBJ in 1968 but it’s gonna make things ugly for Romney.

 

If Huntsman continues his surge and finishes in 2nd place, he will receive the boosts in money and media that will make him a viable candidate in Florida and Nevada in a few weeks. Santorum and Gingrich will continue to point to South Carolina as a state they can win and is more representative of the GOP than New Hampshire is. Ron Paul will stay in this race for the long haul.

 

This means that for at least the next month, Romney will have to stave off attacks from at least 4 other candidates. All the unflattering stories, all the gaffes and the harsh glare of contention will continue to dog his campaign.

 

While I think Romney is still a solid front runner, his candidacy is in great peril for the long haul. A weak showing today may be a harbinger of more trouble to come for him.

 

 

FDO

 

Update: It's worse for Romney than I anticipated. Huntsman underperformed and Perry has no momentum at all yet they are still committed to running. Between their continuing campaigns and Gingrich's scorched earth policy, Romney will be forced to continue competing. Exactly what he doesn't want. 


Tweet Your Way to Third

 

Well, it looks like Ron Paul finished a disappointing third in the Iowa caucus. That's despite having the very best social media campaign as evidenced by this CNN piece. Unfortunately for him, Iowa's demographics are still Iowa's demographics. 

 

 

FDO

 

 

Tweet Your Way to a Win?

 

I wonder how much influence social media will have on the Iowa caucuses. Isn’t there a real possibility that there will be important outcomes during the caucus based on the (perceived?) momentum of candidates?

 

It’s easy for me to anticipate scenarios wherein early caucus victories for one candidate have a cascading effect on other caucuses’ outcomes. Small caucuses or caucus sites with relative unanimity can realistically finish their process quite early.  Even before there are official announcements, folks on the scene can relay their information to large numbers of other Iowans via Twitter. Especially in a contest with such a vast number of uncommitted voters, it’s not hard to imagine many folks deciding to go with the flow and vote for the candidate with early success.

 

Is this where Ron Paul’s ground game will win the day? After all, his network in Iowa is largely built around the kind of young, energetic supporters who will be likely to connect with each other and ardently encourage others to support the Good Doctor.

 

If Paul has a surprisingly good showing tonight, the ability of his supporters to share information broadly and instantly may be a key factor.

 

Will the rise of social media be permanently transformative in Iowa politics? National politics? 


<shudder>

 

 

FDO