I wonder how much influence social media will have on the Iowa caucuses. Isn’t there a real possibility that there will be important outcomes during the caucus based on the (perceived?) momentum of candidates?
It’s easy for me to anticipate scenarios wherein early caucus victories for one candidate have a cascading effect on other caucuses’ outcomes. Small caucuses or caucus sites with relative unanimity can realistically finish their process quite early. Even before there are official announcements, folks on the scene can relay their information to large numbers of other Iowans via Twitter. Especially in a contest with such a vast number of uncommitted voters, it’s not hard to imagine many folks deciding to go with the flow and vote for the candidate with early success.
Is this where Ron Paul’s ground game will win the day? After all, his network in Iowa is largely built around the kind of young, energetic supporters who will be likely to connect with each other and ardently encourage others to support the Good Doctor.
If Paul has a surprisingly good showing tonight, the ability of his supporters to share information broadly and instantly may be a key factor.
Will the rise of social media be permanently transformative in Iowa politics? National politics?