Category: Sports

Bears+ Vikings+ Frozen Field= Trouble

 

I’m very interested in watching the Bears-Vikings game tonight outside in Minneapolis. I’m a fan of the Vikes and there’s a rivalry involved but more interestingly, the field is frozen and reportedly concrete hard. This game is happening outdoors at the same time that the NFL is trumpeting its efforts to maintain player safety. What an odd contradiction.

 

The Vikings have lots of reasons for wanting this game to happen in Minnesota (Favre’s last home game, ticket sales, 50th anniversary events…) but this is another illustration of short term desires overriding common sense. I want to know what happens if someone gets badly hurt. How much will this game ultimately cost the league?

 

 

FDO

 

Science Over Sight

 

Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young award yesterday in what is being touted as a harbinger of a new age of baseball. In this new age, statistical complexity trumps conventional wisdom, and in some ways, the ability to believe what we see. One of the many charms of baseball is the ability to create much of individual games through the standard box score. At bats, runs, hits, RBI. Many baseball fans can get 95% of a game’s flow correct from those four stats in a box score. Any game! We can also determine the success level of players based on those box scores. For some, box scores have been an obsession because they indicate so much about baseball. (Tim Kurkjian writes about this beautifully.)

 

What sabermetric statistical analysis has done is to de-value what we see in our box scores. Those cherished box scores are only a portion of what indicates a player’s success. Discovering that the baseball writers who vote on Cy Young and other awards are willing to look beyond the box scores and the conventional measures of success really does seem to be an indication of how thoroughly this sabermetric revolution has taken hold.

 

There are two near certain next steps. One, virtually all baseball television coverage will soon show stat lines that shift during an at-bat. We’ll still see Batting Average, Runs Batted In and Home Runs. Then the scroll will shift to include On-Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage and On-Base + Slugging Percentage. Then the scroll will shift again to include RC27 (Runs Created per 27 Innings), SECA (Secondary Average), ISOP (Isolated Power) and TB (Total Bases). By 2020, every kid discovering baseball will know those terms as naturally as I do ERA. And when that happens, the second next step will occur. Every computer will have ‘sabermetric’ in its spellcheck.

 

 

FDO

 

Falling Down the Memory Hole

 

In another saddening but unsurprising addition to the large and steadily growing library of football head trauma victims add Jim McMahon. The Super Bowl champion quarterback for the Chicago Bears describes the horrifying memory loss he suffers now. AT AGE 51!

 

It’s amazing that so many of the current generation of players are still resisting efforts to make the game safer. Especially when they see some of their own football heroes, like McMahon, experiencing a clearly declining quality of life.

 

 

FDO

 

The Minnesota Vikings- The Ewing Theory 2012 Super Bowl Champions!

 

As a Vikings fan, I am desperately holding onto hope for this season (Rodgers is the next Packer to hit the IR, the Bears play like they are who we think they are and the Lions, well, never mind.) but if none of that works out, here’s a new possibility for us. The Ewing Theory! In a nutshell, this idea says that many teams dramatically exceed expectations in the season after their signature star leaves the team. Examples abound.

 

The Vikings will be a perfect candidate after Brett Favre, their Hall of Fame bound quarterback, fails in his quest to bring the Vikes that elusive Super Bowl win (and move up the list of all-time greats). He's "Ewing".

 

Brad Childress will be fired and Leslie Frazier will be his replacement, giving the team a renewed emphasis on defense. Tarvaris Jackson is not the incompetent many of his detractors claim and combined with Adrian Peterson and a healthy receiving corps, the Vikings will be at least average offensively. In the weakened NFC, the combination of a solid offense, aggressive defense, awesome home field advantage and a giant chip on their collective shoulders may be enough to make a deep playoff run.

 

(If Childress is fired this year, there’s some modified Ewing Theory hope for this season. Randy Moss would be the Ewing in that scenario.)

 

Now, if only there were some hope for the Timberwolves…

 

 

FDO

 

 

Dusty Baker, Tony LaRussa and Red Ruffians, or, Major League Blunders!

Why Baker and LaRussa should not see each other again this season.

I have a few thoughts about the Cardinals-Reds brawl from their last series. You may remember Cincinnati’s Brandon Phillips made numerous provocative comments about the Cardinals then when he came to the plate, Yadier Molina chastised him, benches cleared, bodies flew and hell was raised. At least two pitchers were tossed against the fence in a scary scene. One of them, Johnny Cueto, received a seven game suspension because of kicking at the Cardinals surrounding him. Jason LaRue suffered a mild concussion as a result. I firmly believe that Cueto’s lengthy suspension was based on the injury that his actions caused, not the actions themselves. Random kicking into an onrushing crowd is much less dangerous than throwing a fastball at a batter’s head. Cueto was obviously frightened and, as a pitcher, smartly avoided throwing punches. As we’ve seen too many times, a single arm injury can cost a pitcher his career, millions of dollars and his team a championship.

More importantly, MLB should institute a blanket rule covering fighting the way the NBA has done. In the NBA, if you are on the bench and cross onto the playing floor you are automatically suspended. (I think there should be a little gray area there because basketball benches are so close to the court that players on the sidelines are often less than a step away from the court so crossing over sometimes happens during actual play, much less during a melee.) In baseball, the idea might be to simply punish anyone who comes onto the field or, if already on the field, leaves their legitimate area of engagement. That covers guys playing defense, warming up on the sidelines, the on-deck hitter, the base coaches, everybody. As usually happens in these fights, Phillips and Molina were yelling at each other but not fighting. It was only when 50 other guys crowded the area that things became physical. (Reason #37 professional sports are like junior high school.) Removing the additional people from the scene means that umpires and security personnel can tamp down confrontations quickly, easily and safely. Ideally, managers would be exempt from this rule and allowed to bring their players back to earth from Planet Testosterone.

That notion took a beating in the Phillips-Molina encounter because Tony LaRussa and Dusty Baker failed in their primary responsibility as managers during a fight. They did not serve as peacemakers protecting the game and their players, instead they escalated the confrontation. For them, two games was not a severe enough penalty. I think MLB missed a perfect opportunity to declare that fighting is a dangerous problem for baseball by dropping the hammer on these managers. Baker and LaRussa should have been suspended for the rest of the season series between these teams. I mean, full blown suspended too, as in, can’t enter the stadium during these series. These are old school guys who behave in old school ways that simply don’t make sense in 2010. These great managers behaved in ways that encouraged their players to fight. That is entirely unacceptable. What I am suggesting is the kind of draconian penalty that would make it clear to managers that fighting will no longer be tolerated. Too harsh? Perhaps. That’s kinda the point.

FDO

HIV and Gay Marriage Rights

Last week someone showed me the first poll to indicate a narrow majority of Americans support gay marriage.  For the past few months, I have been talking and thinking a lot about our perceptions of HIV/AIDS. I teach US History and cover the 1980s including HIV, gay liberation efforts and the Reagan administration's reluctance to discuss AIDS or fund research efforts. In class, I read an excerpt from ‘And the Band Played On’ and the kids consistently flip out because they (incorrectly) assume their government would have been highly interested in, y'know, trying to stop a dread, communicable disease. It is always heartening to me that these young people almost uniformly reject anti-gay policies and prejudices, even retroactively. They are the ones who will consistently support laws, initiatives and politicians who advocate marriage rights for everyone.

 

In discerning the base level meaning of marriage, I think it is clear that for many people, the institution of marriage provides license for two people to have sex. This poll reveals significant change in attitudes concerning gay marriage and I am wondering if part of the reason more straight people are willing to support the public sanction of gay sex via marriage has occurred because our collective fear of gay sex has diminished tremendously since the gay people profiled in ‘And the Band…’ were just about the only people who knew anything at all about AIDS.

 

When Magic Johnson announced he was HIV+, I thought there was a good chance that my generation (I was 17, in college and LOTS of us were sexually active) had a new JFK moment. I was totally wrong though (it's still Challenger). Instead, Magic is so healthy, active, rich and visible that I know some people have (temporarily?) forgotten he has HIV. That's a little scary actually. AIDS is now the leading killer of Black women between 25 and 34. The most horrifying elements of that statistic, for me, is that these women have still not been educated enough to know that they are a) susceptible to HIV, b) perfectly capable of preventing their infection in almost every case and c) consistently late to receiving diagnosis and attendant care.

 

Our increasingly cavalier attitude towards HIV is another reminder that we have an amazing level of privilege in the U.S. In so many countries, HIV almost always becomes AIDS and almost always equals a death sentence. Now, early detecting Americans are likely to stay healthy for a very long time. Some of them, like Magic, will always carry HIV but never develop AIDS. The transition in our country from a) AIDS=Death to b) HIV= chronic, massive health concern gives me increased hope that some of the fears our society has long harbored about gay sexuality will continue to fade. The likely repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell is another step in that direction. (Baby steps to full equality, baby steps to full equality.)

 

While judicial decisions are critical stepping stones, it is ultimately the support of the American people that generates the permanent force of change. That change is occurring. Most people I suggest this to think I’m crazy but I believe that gay marriage will be legal in half the states by 2020. That's my hope and my prediction. We're on the way, people. Slowly but surely. We're on the way.

 

 

FDO

 

US Open Men’s Tournament Preview 2010

 

 

This is the first time in many years that at least 5 men should enter a Grand Slam tournament feeling as though they have at least a 10% chance of winning. For Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Robin Soderling, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick and Andy Murray, this US Open has to be seen as a realistic opportunity to provide a breakthrough in some way.

 

For Federer, winning this title would not only ‘stop the bleeding’ but it would dim the calls that he’s on the path of clear decline. Last year, his loss to Martin Del Potro was seen as shocking, but this year, his aura of invincibility has all but vanished. Winning in New York would push him back to being the clear #2 in the world (the silly ATP rankings system be damned) and would give him another year of multiple Grand Slam victories. Not only would that pad his lead, it would also keep Nadal from gaining ground in that all important category.

 

For Nadal, this tournament could push him into rarified air. Winning the lifetime Grand Slam is significant and would allow him another feather in his history cap. 3 Grand Slams in a year would also propel him radically out of the pack and into a unique position at the top of his sport. Nadal stands to prove that his game truly does work on hard courts and US Open success could mean that Nadal would also be primed to win in Australia next January with a chance to win the “Spanish Slam”.

 

Soderling needs this win. He needs to get past the competitor stage and move into the champion stage. He has the game for it and the personality to take it. Instead of being one of the guys, Soderling could become The Next Big Thing in tennis, instantly surpassing Djokovic and Murray in that conversation. (Del Po could have been that guy but his wrist injury has made that impossible.)

 

Djokovic risks becoming a tennis afterthought. Even though he’s #3 in the world, and has been as high as #2, no one feels that he’s likely to become the best player in tennis. (To most fans, even Djokovic’s arrival at #2 was less about his climb as much as it was about Fed’s descent.) Winning in Australia in 2008 should have catapulted him into tennis’ royal box but it didn’t happen and now he’s in jeopardy of being a one hit wonder. He still has a chance to become Jim Courier instead of Michael Stich but has to take advantage of this kind of opportunity.

 

Roddick may need this championship more than any of the other top contenders because his window seems nearest closing. His only Grand Slam victory came here in 2003 and, although he’s had excellent results since then, he’s likely to be viewed as an underachiever when his career ends. Although winning again in New York would be the least beneficial major for him to win, he desperately needs another Grand Slam title under his belt.

 

Andy Murray is best suited to win on hard courts but in his two Grand Slam finals, Federer beat him thoroughly. If Murray truly believes he can eventually win Wimbledon, he would be well served to have notched a major championship elsewhere first. The openness of this year’s field may yield the best opportunity he will have to achieve his ultimate goal.

 

With the rough equality of so many top contenders, I believe the US Open may prove a tremendous fortnight for tennis fans across the globe.  Especially since the clear #1 woman, Serena Williams, is out of this year’s tournament, the excitement of the men’s tournament is likely to provide the key to a successful end to the 2010 major season. I am looking forward to the many great matches I expect over the next two weeks.

 

 

FDO

 

 

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2.1

Late Update: Howard is now on the DL. Extra legitimacy to this post I believe.

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

Is Joey Votto the National League MVP? Part 2

 

An unfortunate addendum is that Votto’s NL MVP candidacy was indirectly strengthened this weekend. Ryan Howard, one of the slugging first basemen with legitimate MVP aspirations hurt his ankle and may miss some games. Howard was struggling a bit anyway and an ankle injury will make it even harder for him to excel down the stretch.

 

Even without injury, Howard would almost certainly have finished behind Votto in the key batting categories but the Phillies’ trade deadline moves seem to have put them in a great position to make the playoffs which would have raised Howard’s already outsized profile. Howard also has the credibility of being Rookie of the Year, MVP and a World Series champion. While some would shake their heads at a Votto MVP (as happened with Justin Morneau a couple seasons back), Howard and Albert Pujols would be safe choices this year. Votto may soon become the best choice.

 

FDO

 

Amaré the Jew

 

I am very excited to read that Amaré Stoudemire is making efforts to connect to what he perceives as his Jewish roots. Honestly, I assume that this is part of a Black American religious subculture that attempts to connect with ancient Israel as an offshoot of the metaphorical relationship between Blacks during slavery and Jews in Egyptian bondage from the Hebrew Bible.  

 

Whether Stoudemire has a religious, ethnical, cultural or familial root in Judaism doesn’t matter to me. What matters to me is that he is willing to explore himself and the world. In a time when many of us try desperately to follow the footprints on the floor, watching a pampered young millionaire (with a very troubled background) work to expand himself this way brings a smile to my face.

 

FDO