A few predictions concerning the politics of 2007:
The landscape of the 2008 Presidential election will shift dramatically as Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain all abandon their presidential bids by the start of 08.
Clinton because she realizes that even if America might be willing to elect a woman president it would not be someone with so many enemies. It would instead be someone like Jennifer Granholm of Michigan. (It might have been Granholm herself were it not for the antiquated born in America rule that made lots of sense in the earliest days of America and almost none today.)
Giuliani will be done in because so many New Yorkers revile him and will make the reasons for their displeasure very public and very national. Rudy currently embodies the strength and resilience Americans love. By the end of the year, he’ll embody the ugly New Yorker that keeps many middle Americans from ever visiting the city.
McCain may get lucky enough that he can stay in the race through 07 but I doubt it. Iraq is such a disaster that it really will take a miracle or a crisis to keep Americans from wanting to abandon that enterprise altogether. McCain’s decision to encourage additional troops has put him substantially out of step with the public as a whole and may make him look like a brave fool by the fall. If he belatedly changes his position the Straight Talk Express will be permanently derailed.
I also think that gay marriage or civil union will become the law in at least one additional state. My guess is that it will be a western state this time and I will actually be surprised if this only happens in one place in 07. The tide has turned on this issue. Thankfully.
Last but not least, there will be at least one major investigation into the Bush Administration thanks to the Democratic Congress. I predict that the inquiry will be at least temporarily debilitating to the adminsistration. It may be Scooter Libby, Katrina, rebuilding contracts, 9-11, energy policy, WMD, human rights violations or something else entirely but the Bushies have screwed up so historically and on so many fronts that when the chickens come home to roost it will be deeply painful.
Five possibilities for 2007. We’ll keep an eye out on all these predictions.