Isn’t there a chance that Barack Obama will win in a rout? I
know that prospect would not provide much intrigue for the media but might that
There’s a chance that Obama will do well enough to dominate
the Electoral College vote in 2008. He could carry both Ohio and Florida
without anyone being surprised. That’s realistic and a great start to hitting
270 assuming he holds the states leaning his way.
If he does somewhat better than expected, he’ll win Colorado,
Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and sneak out victories in Missouri and Iowa which
would mean something on the order of 310-315 votes. In these days of the deeply
divided electorate, 310 is a clear mandate. That could absolutely happen with a
good night for Obama.
If he does substantially better than expected right now, and
there are some important reasons to think he will, he’ll take most of the
states above as well as Indiana, Missouri, and edge out margins in Alaska,
Louisiana and one of the Mountain West states (one of MT, ND, SD, WY). (That would
mean something like 363 electoral votes and doesn’t take into account the races
in Georgia, New Mexico, the Carolinas and Pennsylvania, some of which may tilt
That kind of electoral outcome would be a shocking
repudiation of John McCain, the Republican party, the Bush years and the Iraq
War. It would indicate a fundamental shift in the American electorate and while I don’t feel confident that this level of victory will happen, something on this order may be an actual outcome in November.