Boston vs. Atlanta

The Hawks will give boston a sterner test than people anticipate. That being said, with no playoff experience and a poor coach (sorry, Mike Woodson) the Cs will come out on top.

Prediction: Boston in 6

Cleveland vs. Washington

The Cavs need more and different help for LeBron than they got at the trade deadline. The Wiz match up really well with the Cavs and will be able to impose a faster pace than Mike Brown wants. Unfortunately, I think this is the beginning of the end for his coaching tenure in northern Ohio.

Washington in 6

Detroit vs. Philadelphia

Philly has the heart but not the skill. I think Detroit may use this series as an opportunity to make a statement to the rest of the East that Boston isn’t the only squad with championship aspirations.

Detroit in 5

Orlando vs. Toronto

A tough, hard series that could go either way. I’ll pick the Raptors in 7 because a) I love Toronto and always want the Raps to do well as karmic retribution for still having Vince Carter be their all-time most notable player and b) they have some, not many but some, players with top level competitive experience. Toss up.

Toronto in 7

West 1st round:

LA Lakers vs. Denver

The Nuggets should be able to compete with the Lakers on a talent basis but I don’t think they care enough to win close games. As good as the individual components are, there’s not a lot of team in the Rocky Mountain roundballers. The Lakers meanwhile are streaking and seem ready to make a sustained playoff run.

LA in 6

Utah vs. Houston

The Rockets were a great story while streaking but they’ll get one game in this series. Tops.

Utah in 5

San Antonio vs. Phoenix

The Suns feel this is their time to shine. I think they’re finally right. Shaq will make a difference but Nash’s late game savvy and the Spurs’ total inability to slow STAT will be the ultimate determinants of this series.

Phoenix in 6

New Orleans vs. Dallas

I know, I know, a playoff rookie can’t be your best player. Except Chris Paul violates all the rules. I anticipate massive momentum swings and unsung heroes in this series. Game 7 is in the Big Easy and as much as Dirk wants it, I think the good vibrations and voodoo spirits will give the C2I2H* one more reason to laissez le bon temps roulez.

F- Dirk Nowitzki

With nearly the same production as last year, Nowitzki’s still among the top players in the world despite getting no MVP consideration due to the Mavs underwhelming season. Dirk may have been more valuable this year. Without his quick return from his ankle sprain, the Warriors, not the Mavs would be in the playoffs right now.

F- Carlos Boozer

The Booz still has a personality problem outside Utah thanks to stabbing the Cavs (yes, and their blind owner) in the back. That being said, the Jazz were incredibly impressive this year with Carlos doing all the tough stuff. He’s genuinely become a top notch guy.

C- Dwight Howard

Easy pick here and almost made 1st team. He’ll likely be a fixture on this list for the next 8 to 10 years.

G- Chauncey Billups

Overlooked because of Detroit’s team concept but check out his PER numbers and notice how well he’s defended the top guards in the league this year. It’s hard to believe he was given up for dead early in his career.

G- Steve Nash

Overshadowed because of the rise of the young stud point guards, Nash had another exceptional season. In fact, considering the rancor surrounding the team at the start of the year and the massive changes introduced by the Shaq trade, keeping the Suns near the top of the league is nearly as impressive as the turnaround he produced three seasons ago.

All-NBA third team

F- Tim Duncan

Still one of the best players in the world but this was not his strongest season. Manu was the Spurs best player and Duncan was not able to dominate many games. So he ‘falls’ to 3rd team.

F- Tracy McGrady

2nd longest win streak ever. He’s not my kind of player because of his utter lack of efficiency but he deserves credit.

C- Al Jefferson

Ish. I hate to reward a player from such a bad team but the other strong candidates were either injured, awful offensively or unwilling to be considered centers.

G- Allen Iverson

Still getting it done in his unique, staggering fashion. Amazing.

G- Manu Ginobili

Yep, it’s true. Amare Stoudamire really does need to be on my first team All-NBA. He’s averaging 25 and 9 with .590 shooting on a steady diet of jump shots, finger rolls and dunks compared to Dwight Howard’s 20 points,14 ½ boards and .599 from the floor. The 2 point FG% is .601 to .599, with Amare taking 200 more shots.

Howard began the season so well it’s taken me a while to come around to the notion that his efforts really have tapered off and his team success has been nice but not striking.

Everyone suggests that Amare’s development has been enhanced by the arrival of the Big Cactus but I don’t think it’s been about a position switch since he takes the same shots (just more) as before. What really seems to have changed is simply that STAT doesn’t need to be as conscious of Shawn Marion’s scoring ego. Shaq’s been there and done that. The difference it’s made has been the capper for me especially as it’s come in the middle of an amazing conference battle.

F- LeBron James

One of the best statistical seasons ever produced by a small forward. Or anyone else for that matter. Simply extraordinary and in many years, LeBron’s numbers would have been so overwhelming as to garner lots of MVP love despite the mediocrity of the team.

I’m starting to get a little scared for LeBron. He’s probably only got another year or two before people start giving him grief about team success. Yes, he’s been to the Finals but if the Cavs bow out to the Wiz (more on that tomorrow) then there’s a good chance last year’s run will be regarded as a fluke instead of an opening salvo.

F- Kevin Garnett

This is the basketball equivalent of Barry Larkin winning the NL MVP in 1995. Larkin did all the things necessary to make a talented team a winning team. That’s what KG has produced this year. And despite some of his ‘worst’ stats at 19 and 9, his presence and value has been clear and meaningful all year. He will likely be the runaway Defensive Player of the Year and I have to give he and Doc Rivers credit because I’m sure there was at least some consideration given to making KG a legit 20-10 guy again this year. It certainly would help the revitalization of Boston Celtic basketball if it’s newly acquired star player transforms the team into a title contender with the league’s best record while receiving an MVP. They make movies out of season’s like that. Well, at least they would now.

G- Kobe Bryant

Kobe has used this season to dispel nearly every doubt that persisted about him. I don’t think that’s been enough to make him the most valuable player in the league but if he’s not a unanimous first team all-NBA selection I will be shocked.

Lots has been written about whether or not this should be Kobe’s MVP year and I will not be surprised if he wins it. This may be his best opportunity. He’s at the top of his game but has lots of miles on him. His team has tons of talent but does not seem to have a playoff ready psyche (it’s toughest players are clearly the starting guards) and as we saw this year, the playoffs matter regarding the next year’s MVP. (Dirk had another brilliant season but he’s not even been in MVP conversations.) If the Lakers falter in Round 2, Kobe will be hard pressed to win MVP next year.

I will be excited to see how Kobe responds to playoff pressure this season, especially since the Lakers are substantial favorites and he’ll start games guarded by weak, much shorter defenders. Kobe could easily average 45+ against the Nuggets and that temptation to excel individually could be striking, particularly in games in Denver.

G- Chris Paul

He’s the guy. Count up the stats however you’d like. Acknowledge that the Hornets did not finish first in the toughest conference in recent memory. Suggest that yes, he has an All-Star player on the front line in David West. Defensive liabilities? Sure.

But really, c’mon, this is the guy who turned the Hornets from playoff contender to title contender. Who posted one of the 5 best seasons ever for a player under 6’ 3”. Who made basketball in New Orleans relevant and dispelled virtually any notion that the Bayou might be the next Seattle.

There are 31 important games left in the NBA’s ‘meaningless’ regular season out of only 42 total. That’s a shockingly high total.

Shaq has only won one MVP, many suggest that’s biased in some way. Kobe has never won one even though most suggest he’s been the best (or at worse, second best) player in the league for a few years. Scoop Jackson thinks it’s because voters don’t like him. Sure, that doesn’t help but Barry Bonds won 7 (although he was clearly robbed of at least one more) so media disdain is not a true disqualifier.

Shaq only won a single trophy in part because of timing, in part because of the presence of Kobe (it’s hard to be the MVP when your complementary player may be better than you; for all Scottie Pippen’s talents, he was clearly Robin to Jordan’s Batman, that distinction was frequently muddied during the Shaq-Kobe championship seasons), and in large part because he didn’t play enough. That’s actually the ultimate reason Shaq didn’t win more. It was always possible to suggest games missed as a substantial negative factor for him and in some years, an eliminating factor.

Kobe’s negative factor has changed over the years. For his first several years, it was Shaq. ‘Nuff said. In the last few years, it’s been team success, particularly as new powers developed in the West. Nash and Nowitzki won the last three MVPs not because of a desire to recognize white jump shooting foreigners but because they clearly elevated their teams. Basketball celebrates team success in its awards. No one would argue that Kevin Garnett has had the best individual season but in the NBA universe, MVP generally means great player who makes his team impressive. LeBron James is a fading candidate despite having one of the best individual seasons in recent memory. His Cavs don’t look better than last year so his numbers don’t mean as much as they should. Realistically, his year is significantly familiar to Jordan’s 20 years ago when it was clear that the player was transcendent but the team success may be further away than anyone would like to see. (This only underscores how Herculean LeBron’s effort was last year in taking the Cavs to the Finals.)

Coming back to Kobe, his MVP candidacy is waning as the season does simply because there are so many reasons other folks are more deserving. In virtually no criteria does Kobe seem to be the top guy. LeBron’s got the best stats this year. CP3’s been the shocking surprise of the season. KG’s Celtics have been the class of the league. Losing Bynum is not in the same category as Yao’s most recent injury troubles.